Predicting the Winner of the 2014 NASCAR Cup Season

This year is a unique year for NASCAR. Instead of wondering if driver A will finish 15th or better, letting driver B maybe win the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship if he finishes 4th or better, and other such convoluted NASCAR algebra, this year, we have a straight up, whoever finishes the highest in the field of the four contenders will be the champion.

That even means if all four get wrecked and finish 39th to 43rd, whom so ever is 39th, will be the champion. Or that the best driver of the four could be eliminated by a bad tire, bad call by another team, or just bad luck.

But who might it be, that will take advantage of this TV ratings induced, newly kludged elimination points system and become the season winner?

Looking at the Homestead driver ratings for Joey Logano, Ryan Neman, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, the money is on Harvick!

Logano  71.2
Newman  84.8
Hamlin  93.4
Harvick 99.1

But I've seen Homestead throw wrenches in statistical performances in the past.

And the latest practice speeds, as I write this, are backing me up, where Harvick posted the faster speeds of the four contenders, followed by Newman, then Hamlin and Logano.

But practice time and race time are two very different beasts and despite the ranking right now, Hamlin has won here before.

If we look at the season's driver ratings for these four drivers,

Newman 86.1
Hamlin 90.7
Logano 106.7
Harvick 109.9

Things look different. But this is a different weekend with all the pressures of an all or nothing race weekend.

I think, pending more practice and qualifying sessions, that this will be between Harvick and Hamlin.  My worries are that Newman might not be quite up to snuff and will pull one of his all or nothing moves by not taking four tires or some such stunt. He tries these a lot and most of the time they don't pan out.

So for lack of any other substantial info, numbers and one practice session say that Kevin Harvick will be the champion come Sunday afternoon.

But too many things can happen in this new and idiotic process that NASCAR has instigated at the behest of the TV networks. So we will see. For now, suffice it to say, the mostly better drivers are at the top of the field and we will have ourselves a first-time champion.

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NASCAR Fines The Wrong People, Networks Are NASCAR Dumbasses

Last weekend after the NASCAR Sprint Cup at Charlotte Motor Speedway, there was quite the fracas between drivers.  Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski were playing car tag and spinning each other on the track during the warm down laps.  Matt Kenseth charged up behind Brad Keselowski, in front of cameras, blind siding him and getting him in a headlock.  Word was that Hamlin and Keselowski were having an angry car chase through the garages, inches from pedestrians.

And after all that, NASCAR fines Tony Stewart and Brad Keselowski (BK).

Oh, yes, after BK was spun, he bumped into Tony Stewart's rear bumper. In reply, Stewart put it in reverse and "floored" it, nearly demolishing the front end of BK's car.

Where do I begin?

There was concern on the air from drivers about the car wars game that went on, on the track, between Hamlin and BK. The think was, they were talking about getting hit while they were removing their helmets and safety gear.

I for one, for years, have worried about when drivers start dismantling their safety gear while they're still on the track and would look forward to the day that they are required to retain all gear in place, until they're off the racing and pit stalls surface.

It is just too dangerous to be pulling off your gear when there's the potential for someone to pull an ass-hat move while a driver sits unprotected.

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There is that anger that is always just under the skin of Tony Stewart. I presumed it was his temper, combined with something BK did, considering everyone seemed mad at BK.

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Then there was Matt Kenseth. Very unlike him, but he was unraveled and wanted a piece of BK. This, after damaging BK's car during a caution flag, in retaliation for something BK did to him.

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And finally, there was Hamlin and BK, including the quickie car chase through the garages. THAT seemed dangerous.

But Hamlin and Kenseth skated somehow while Stewart and BK got the fines, looking like NASCAR was turning a blind eye towards the part that Hamlin played in the situation.

But then there was the media coverage of the event after the fact.

First things first... if you're going to cover an event, have your reporter watch the last 30 minutes of any telecast before the start reporting bulls*!

No. 11 Team Penalized For Rules Infraction At Indianapolis

via press release

The No. 11 team that competes in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has been penalized for a rules infraction discovered in post-race inspection July 27 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

This infraction is a P5 level penalty which is outlined in Section 12-4.5 A (9) of the 2014 NASCAR rule book:

Approved parts that fail or are improperly installed to fail in their intended use of great importance (e.g.; rear wheel well panels that fail and allow air evacuation in the trunk area; oil box cover that fails and allows air evacuation in the driver compartment; shifter boot cover that fails and allows air evacuation through the floor pan).

This infraction violates Sections:

12-1 - Actions detrimental to stock car racing;

20-2.1 – Car body must be acceptable to NASCAR officials and meet the following requirements:

·         K – Any device or ductwork that permits air to pass from one area of the interior of the car to another, or to the outside of the car, will not be permitted. This includes, but is not limited to, the inside of the car to the trunk area, or the floors, firewalls, crush panels and wheel wells passing air into or out of the car;

·         L – All seams of the interior sheet metal and all interior sheet metal to exterior sheet metal contact point must be sealed and caulked. This includes, but is not limited to, floors, firewalls, wheel wells, package trays, crush panels and any removable covers;

20-3.4 - All references to the inspection surface in sub-section 20-3.4 have been determined with the front lower edge of both main frame rails set at six inches and the rear lower edge of both main frame rails set at eight inches. For driver protection, all firewalls, floors, tunnels, and access panels must be installed and completely secured in place when the car is in competition;

20-3.4.5 - A rear firewall, including any removable panels or access doors, constructed using magnetic sheet steel a minimum of 22 gage (0.031 inch thick), must be located between the trunk area and the driver’s compartment and must be welded in place. Block-off plates/covers used in rear firewalls in place of blowers, oil coolers, etc., must be constructed of 22 gage (0.031 inch thick) magnetic sheet steel. Block-off plates/covers must be installed with positive fasteners and sealed to prevent air leakage. Carbon fiber or aluminum block-off plates/covers will not be permitted.

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Per Section 12-4.5 B, the minimum P5 penalty includes:

Sprint Cup Series Official Race Results from Talladega

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES OFFICIAL RACE REPORT No. 10
45TH ANNUAL AARON'S "499"
TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega, AL - May 4, 2014
2.66-Mile Oval
188 Laps - 500 Miles Purse: $6,186,747

Race Comments: Denny Hamlin won the Aaron's 499, his 24th career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory. Prior to the green flag, the following cars dropped to the rear for the reasons indicated: #7, 14, 66 (unapproved adjustments); #18 (engine change).  It looks like 27 cars finished the day on the lead lap, while accidents easily claimed 10 others.

As you can see below (or when you watched) Danica Patrick led some laps, but she's only snagged the front spot of the pack at restrictor plate races. I'd love to see her race it to the front at other tracks.  Or some are saying that this proves that anyone can lead laps at a restrictor plate race.  Sigh.

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TIME OF RACE:3 hours, 17 minutes, 16 seconds       AVERAGE SPEED:152.103 mph      MARGIN OF VICTORY:Under Caution

COORS LIGHT POLE AWARD:  Brian Scott (198.29 mph. 48.293 secs.)

3M LAP LEADER:  Greg Biffle (58 Laps), Dale Jr led 26 and Joey Logano, 25.

Caution Flags: 8 cautions for 31 laps. [Beneficiary in Brackets]
15-17 (Car #2, 10 Accident Turn 1 [None]);
51-54 (Debris Frontstretch [1]);
107-110 (Debris Backstretch [1]);
138-143 (Car #2, 7, 14, 18, 20, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 33, 38, 48, 51 Accident Turn 4 [1]);
152-156 (Oil On Track From #38 [1]);
176-180 (Car #3, 17, 22, 34, 36, 41, 48, 95 Accident Turn 4 [1]);
184-186 (Car #17, 26, 31, 99 Accident Turn 1 [1]);
188 (Debris Frontstretch [None]).

Lap Leaders:  48 lead changes among 23 drivers.
Scott-pole, Menard 1-5, Patrick 6-7, J. Gordon 8, Patrick 9-12,
Keselowski 13, Menard 14, Cassill 15, Menard 16-19, Kenseth 20,
Logano 21-31, Hamlin 32-34, Edwards 35-37, Logano 38, Edwards 39-40,
Johnson 41, Logano 42-51, Gilliland 52, Ky. Busch 53, Logano 54-56,
Biffle 57-58, Johnson 59, Biffle 60-94, Edwards 95, McDowell 96,
Biffle 97-106, Ragan 107, Mears 108, Earnhardt Jr 109-112,
Bayne 113-118, Earnhardt Jr 119-134, Ambrose 135-137, Sorenson 138, Newman 139,
Mears 140-141, Biffle 142-145, Earnhardt Jr 146-151, Biffle 152-158, Vickers 159-161,
Hamlin 162, Vickers 163, Hamlin 164-165, Vickers 166-167,
Harvick 168-180, Hamlin 181, Harvick 182, Hamlin 183-185, Harvick 186,
Hamlin 187-188.
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NEXT EVENT: May 10, 2014 - 4th Annual 5-hour ENERGY 400 Benefiting Special Operations Warrior Foundation, Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS (400.5 Miles) (267 Laps)

Fin		Car				Series	Bonus		Led
Pos		No		Driver	Laps	Points	Points	Status	Laps
1	-	11	-	Denny Hamlin	188	47	4	Running	12
2	-	16	-	Greg Biffle	188	44	2	Running	58
3	-	15	-	Clint Bowyer	188	41	0	Running
4	-	55	-	Brian Vickers	188	41	1	Running	6
5	-	47	-	AJ Allmendinger	188	39	0	Running
6	-	27	-	Paul Menard	188	39	1	Running	10
7	-	4	-	Kevin Harvick	188	38	1	Running	15
8	-	5	-	Kasey Kahne	188	36	0	Running
9	-	42	-	Kyle Larson #	188	35	0	Running
10	-	17	-	Ricky Stenhouse Jr	188	34	0	Running
11	-	40	-	Landon Cassill	188	0	0	Running	1
12	-	18	-	Kyle Busch	188	33	1	Running	1
13	-	43	-	Aric Almirola	188	31	0	Running
14	-	13	-	Casey Mears	188	31	1	Running	3
15	-	3	-	Austin Dillon #	188	29	0	Running
16	-	7	-	Michael Annett #	188	28	0	Running
17	-	78	-	Martin Truex Jr	188	27	0	Running
18	-	31	-	Ryan Newman	188	27	1	Running	1
19	-	9	-	Marcos Ambrose	188	26	1	Running	3
20	-	98	-	Josh Wise	188	24	0	Running
21	-	26	-	Cole Whitt #	188	23	0	Running
22	-	10	-	Danica Patrick	188	23	1	Running	6
23	-	48	-	Jimmie Johnson	188	22	1	Running	2
24	-	32	-	Terry Labonte	188	20	0	Running
25	-	66	-	Michael Waltrip	188	19	0	Running
26	-	88	-	Dale Earnhardt Jr	188	19	1	Running	26
27	-	51	-	Justin Allgaier #	188	17	0	Running
28	-	23	-	Alex Bowman #	187	16	0	Accident
29	-	1	-	Jamie McMurray	187	15	0	Running
30	-	99	-	Carl Edwards	182	15	1	Accident	6
31	-	83	-	Ryan Truex #	182	13	0	Accident
32	-	22	-	Joey Logano	174	13	1	Accident	25
33	-	41	-	Kurt Busch	174	11	0	Accident
34	-	36	-	Reed Sorenson	174	11	1	Accident	1
35	-	34	-	David Ragan	174	10	1	Accident	1
36	-	95	-	Michael McDowell	174	9	1	Accident	1
37	-	20	-	Matt Kenseth	171	8	1	Running	1
38	-	2	-	Brad Keselowski	160	7	1	Running	1
39	-	24	-	Jeff Gordon	156	6	1	Running	1
40	-	38	-	David Gilliland	150	5	1	Engine	1
41	-	21	-	Trevor Bayne	136	0	0	Accident	6
42	-	33	-	Brian Scott	136	0	0	Accident
43	-	14	-	Tony Stewart	136	1	0	Accident

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Hornish Jr replaces Hamlin at the Auto Club 400

It was just reported that Denny Hamlin will have Sam Hornish Jr drive his No. 11 Fed Ex Car in the Auto Club 400 due to vision issues resulting from an eye infection.

He headed to a local hospital out there in Fontana, California, to have himself checked out.

Which, in looking at it, sort of kills all the marketing focused on the potential feud or issues that Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano might have had, coming from the wreck that put Hamlin in the wall, causing that back injury that kept him out of the car for an extended period of time.

So if you're wondering why you aren't seeing his name, Hornish Jr replaces Hamlin in the No. 11 Fed Ex Car at Fontana.

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Sprint Cup Series Official Race Results From Homestead-Miami

There it is, the last official results from the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup series.  Sigh.  It was Juan Pablo Montoya's last NASCAR race, Kevin Harvick's last RCR run, to say the least of what changes are coming up for the 2014 season. 

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES OFFICIAL RACE REPORT No. 36
15TH ANNUAL FORD ECOBOOST "400"
HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Homestead, FL - November 17, 2013
1.5-Mile Oval
267 Laps - 400.5 Miles Purse: $5,359,625

Race Comments: Denny Hamlin won the FORD EcoBoost 400, his 23rd NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victory. Prior to the green flag to start the event, no cars dropped to the rear of the field.

TIME OF RACE: 3 hours, 3 minutes, 52 seconds       AVERAGE SPEED: 130.693 mph      MARGIN OF VICTORY: 0.799 second(s)

COORS LIGHT POLE AWARD:  Matt Kenseth (177.667 mph. 30.394 secs.)

3M LAP LEADER:  Matt Kenseth (144 Laps)

SUNOCO ROOKIE OF THE RACE:  Danica Patrick

Caution Flags: 8 cautions for 37 laps. [Beneficiary in Brackets]
12-14 (Car #93 Accident Turns 3/4 [None]); 24-27 (Car #93 Accident Turn 4 [None]); 69-72 (Debris Turn 3 [30]); 91-94 (Car #7 Spin Turn 2 [10]); 153-157 (Debris Backstretch [10]); 190-193 (Debris Turn 3 [5]); 207-211 (Fluid On The Track [31]); 232-239 (Debris / #27 On Fire [9]).

Lap Leaders:  22 lead changes among 8 drivers.
Kenseth 1-11, Hamlin 12-13, Kenseth 14, Harvick 15, Kenseth 16-25, Ragan 26, Harvick 27, Ku. Busch 28-31, Kenseth 32-91, Larson 92, Kenseth 93-139, Earnhardt Jr 140, Kenseth 141-142, Earnhardt Jr 143-153, Kenseth 154-166, Hamlin 167-207, Harvick 208-213, Keselowski 214-222, Hamlin 223, Earnhardt Jr 224-235, Hamlin 236-239, Earnhardt Jr 240-243, Hamlin 244-267.

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Fin	Car
Pos	No	Driver	Laps	Status	Laps Led
1	11	Denny Hamlin	267	Running	72
2	20	Matt Kenseth	267	Running	144
3	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr	267	Running	28
4	56	Martin Truex Jr	267	Running
5	15	Clint Bowyer	267	Running
6	2	Brad Keselowski	267	Running	9
7	18	Kyle Busch	267	Running
8	22	Joey Logano	267	Running
9	48	Jimmie Johnson	267	Running
10	29	Kevin Harvick	267	Running	8
11	24	Jeff Gordon	267	Running
12	99	Carl Edwards	267	Running
13	5	Kasey Kahne	267	Running
14	55	Elliott Sadler	267	Running
15	51	Kyle Larson	267	Running	1
16	43	Aric Almirola	267	Running
17	39	Ryan Newman	267	Running
18	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	267	Running
19	14	Mark Martin	267	Running
20	10	Danica Patrick #	267	Running
21	78	Kurt Busch	267	Running	4
22	17	Ricky Stenhouse Jr #	267	Running
23	31	Jeff Burton	267	Running
24	16	Greg Biffle	267	Running
25	30	Parker Kligerman	267	Running
26	9	Marcos Ambrose	267	Running
27	38	David Gilliland	266	Running
28	13	Casey Mears	266	Running
29	34	David Ragan	266	Running	1
30	1	Jamie McMurray	265	Running
31	83	David Reutimann	265	Running
32	36	J.J. Yeley	264	Running
33	33	Landon Cassill	264	Running
34	32	Ken Schrader	263	Running
35	87	Joe Nemechek	263	Running
36	47	AJ Allmendinger	257	Running
37	93	Travis Kvapil	248	Running
38	7	Dave Blaney	242	Running
39	27	Paul Menard	229	Accident
40	21	Trevor Bayne	223	Engine
41	35	Josh Wise	119	Rear Gear
42	40	Tony Raines	104	Vibration
43	98	Michael McDowell	63	Brakes

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Drivers Are Getting Broken Up in NASCAR (Truex, Labonte UPDATED: Hamlin)

Wow, rough week gang.

Last weekend at Bristol, the in-car cam showed Martin Truex Jr. getting into that wreck.  The one thing I saw instantly was how he did not let go of the steering wheel immediately, and then held his wrist close to his chest for a moment.

And then get out, pretending he's fine.

But what I saw screamed broken wrist.

Guess what?  Truex will be driving with a cast this weekend at Atlanta and beyond.

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Bobby Labonte broke three ribs in a bicycle accident and will be missing a few weeks from the car, while Mike Bliss steps in at Atlanta.

Bobby has NOT been having a stellar year, from mid-quality equipment to race break downs.

Hell, I had impromptu quality time with Bobby at Sonoma because his car broke down before the green flag and I happened across him while he was standing around in the infield waiting for transport.

The guy's had crap luck this year.  Last weekend was starting to look good and he got caught up in someone else's crap in Bristol.

On top of that, JTG has replaced Bobby in 2014 with A.J. Allmendinger.  Arg.

Sometimes an era must come to a graceful close, no matter how much we don't want to see that.

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Which still has me wondering where Ryan Newman will end up?  Will he take a mediocre ride, fill the seat that Kurt Busch just vacated for SHR or hold out?  And why is Danica... oh never mind on that one.

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UPDATE:  And now we find that Denny Hamlin will be driving with a splint this weekend because he got his wrist caught up in the spokes of his steering wheel in the same accident Truex was in!  Dang!  Bristol really was a bull ring last weekend!

(article originally published 8-29-13, updated 8-30-13)

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Dover, Twittter, Hamlin and Tuning Out Too Soon

Wow, did I miss one or what?  I tuned out of watching the Dover race with about 25 laps to go.  I mean, what's the point, right?  The new cars tend to spread out in a line and it's the same thing, over and over every lap.  So my wife and I packed up and headed to the park with the dog.

When we got to the park, I pulled up my Twitter app and started perusing my list.  (Twitter Suggestion:  I don't follow the full feed.  It has a lot of "noise" to it.  But you can make lists and I've split out the core media folks to their own list so I can follow actual events during a race and not some wound up and excited opinions!)

As I perused my list, and saw that folks were giving JJ sympathy pats on the back.  Whaaaa?

I started scrolling backwards feverishly, because I figured Juan Pablo Montoya had probably "won," but no!  Tony Stewart???  Whaaaa?

Then I started back-sliding my Twitter feed to see that Johnson jumped the start and Montoya got into the wrong line!  Whaaa?

OK, so twice this season I've tuned out and twice this year, I missed the best finishes of the year.  But I stand by my perspective that the new car (until it's worked out) has killed the excitement to some degree.  Every restrictor plate race pretty much had who ever was in the lead with 5 laps to go, won the race.  Unlike the previous 5+ years when you had no clue who was going to win.

But "stuff" happens!

Obviously when I tune out, big things happen.  So I'm prepared to be paid to tune out with 20 to go next week!

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When I pulled up a feed, I saw how Denny Hamlin's contention for the championship was hurt by his finish at Dover. 

I don't mean to be too pragmatic, but when he went out with his back injury, I wrote him off.  If he somehow started looking at strong potentials for getting back in, then I'd be singing the swan song too.  It would be awesome to see.

But I'm not holding my breath.

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Over on Dave Moody's blog, he touches on how Penske moving to Ford might not have been their best move, considering how Keselowski isn't quite kicking butt this year.

But hey, I got the championship diecast of his and it looks hot in all its color chrome goodness!!!

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And again, if you're wondering where I've been, I had the wind pulled out of my sails for the management of the sport when they fined Denny Hamlin for merely talking about the COT in a rather benign statement.  And though most of the media saw it, they took the middle ground, calling it "It is what it is."  That seriously soured me to the administrative powers of the sport.

But I'm slowly getting back to my old self.  I tend to harbor things a wee bit too long.

Hey, I'll be at Sonoma, working for Charlie Turner (On Pit Row) taking a billion snap shots of anything that's moving!  I mean anything!!! Here's one of last year's album (on FB). Whenever I get around the cars, my blood gets pumped up, so I expect to be back at full enthusiasm after Sonoma.  Who knows, maybe even sooner.

Right?-Bruce