After Week 2, The Chase Points Unfold

I said a few weeks back that despite loading up the Chase field with 12 (13 this year, thanks to Chase-Gate) drivers is almost a moot point.  The top 3 to 5 guys in points headed into Richmond are the guys to beat.

Back then I sorted out the drivers via how they've performed via top-5 and 10 finishes.

I ended up looking at Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, by virtue of their top-10 finishes.  And if my stats would stay faithful, I "suggested" that this would be Kyle Busch's year, barring horrid luck.

Now, after two races in the books, the top-12 positions are splaying out nicely.

My Logano suggestion has panned out... he's 69 points behind Matt (Let's win the first two races) Kenseth.  69 points is pretty big, but not insurmountable yet.

My other two choices are hot on the tail of Kenseth, that being Kyle Busch (14 back) and Johnson (18 behind Kenseth).

No point deficit is yet to be a mathematical doom-say, yet.  But 70 points out is a place out in right field where you only pray a hit will come your way to play off of.

So for now, while keeping myself honest, here's the points as they stand after New Hampshire:

Matt Kenseth 2111
Kyle Busch (-14)
Jimmie Johnson (-18)
Carl Edwards (-36)
Greg Biffle (-38)
Kevin Harvick (-39)
Kurt Busch (-40)
Jeff Gordon (-42)
Ryan Newman (-47)
Clint (I didn't spin) Bowyer (-48)
Dale Earnhardt jr. (-62)
Joey Logano (-69)
Kasey Kahne (-71)

With eight races to go, no one is mathematically eliminated, but realistically speaking, well...

Mathematically, one has to be 344 basic points (not counting bonuses) out of first to be done.  But for me, I take the point difference and divide by half the number of races left to look at a realistic take, which includes luck (Talladega, engine failures, tire whoas and stupid stunts), to get a feeling for how I think folks have a chance.

Hey, face it... it's still possible that the top-5 all wreck each other and cinch up the points race!  Right?

For now, anyone (by my harsh points estimate) within 86 points is still seeing the prize at the end of the tunnel.

But I'm thinking those top-3 noted above will be the contenders come Homestead.   What do you think?

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