The Chase Contenders List, and Their Odds of Winning It

OK, first up, I'm not sure I'm going to really try to do all the math that will create the odds for who will win the NASCAR 2013 Championship title.

Nope.  But what I am going to do is look out our top-12 contenders and look real carefully at what they've done so far this season, and take my best guess at their shot at the title.

			wins	t5's	t10's
1	Matt Kenseth	Leader	5	6	13
2	Jimmie Johnson	-3	4	9	15
3	Kyle Busch	-3	4	11	15
4	Kevin Harvick	-9	2	6	13
5	Carl Edwards	-9	2	8	13
6	Joey Logano	-12	1	8	14
7	Greg Biffle	-12	1	3	10
8	Clint Bowyer	-15	0	8	13
9	Dale Earnhardt Jr	-15	0	5	14
10	Kurt Busch	-15	0	8	13
11	Kasey Kahne	-15	2	8	11
12	Martin Truex Jr	-15	1	6	11

First up...

Usually, the top contenders in the list are the ones who will make it to the final race with any chance to take the trophy home.  Usually.  The back half of the field and wildcards are just spot fillers.

But ignoring their points structure, as they've been reseeded by NASCAR, I like looking at how they were positioned in points headed into Richmond as a clue as to what could happen in these last 10 races.

If I were to do that, I'd say that Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch may very well have a shot at taking the title this year, as these were your top-5 in drivers points headed into Richmond.

BUT...

Some guys turn it on this time of year while others try too hard and burn it off in these last 10 races leading up to Homestead.

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If I take a look at the season and how often a driver manages to get into the top-10, and top-5 places in a race up until this point in the season, I could take a secondary stab, or guess at their future performance.

With that being said, I'm looking at the possible shot that Kyle Busch has at becoming the NASCAR 2013 season champion.  He's tied for the most top-10's with Jimmie Johnson, but has more top-5's under his belt.

But Busch has had frightening luck when he finds himself in the chase.  Maybe this year, he can shake it.

Jimmie Johnson has been having crap luck of late and I worry that this luck will carry over into the Chase.  Or was that luck just his team experimenting?

Joey Logano could bring Penske into the world of repeat champion, since he's their only hope, what with Keselowski not repeating last years' performance. (I said it last year, that broken bone smartened him up and helped him win!)

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As it stands, Hendrick Motorsports has three entries in the Chase, Joe Gibbs Racing (2), Michael Waltrip Racing (2) and Roush Fenway Racing (2).

Furniture Row, Penske and RCR each have one car in the Chase.

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Speaking of bad luck earlier, I have to say that the new points structure has created the situation that when you have bad luck, it can very well predicate the outcome of a driver's season.

If someone has bad luck, they best have it early on in the Chase.  At least then, they have time to recover as each of the other 11 drivers also has a shot of getting kissed by lady (bad) luck.

But if a driver has his bad luck in the last few races, that pretty much can eliminate him because it's very hard to recover from a slip in points that late in the competition rounds.

Bad luck can take 20 to 42 points away from a driver, but he can only gain them back a few points at a time, compared to the other drivers.  (If everyone else is driving decently.)

So it behooves everyone to get their bad luck days out of the way, or hope the other 11 drivers have bad luck too.  Either on the same day or in subsequent races from then.  Or just dodge that bitch altogether!!!

But if a driver has 2 race days of bad luck, it's game over gang.

That's a huge deficit to try and overcome in a points system that is stepped at 1-point intervals.

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And there we have it.

Barring luck, I think Jimmie Johnson or Kyle Busch is stepping up the trophy plate this year.

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