NASCAR's New Championship System Is Disappointing

NASCAR's new method for crowning a champion in 2014 is a daring and bold departure from the tried and true method of using points to determine a Sprint Cup Champion.

Sure, the new system rewards risk takers, focusing on wins.  And ONLY wins.  But it also sharpens the focus on luck, both good and bad, more than any other process they've ever come up with.

Bad luck could possibly stop a driver's season in a single race.  While good luck for a 25th-place team could have them holding a trophy over their head.

Does that sound right to you?

In a 2010 survey that NASCAR held, it said that fans wanted elimination rounds and one-race playoffs.  But who chimed in on that survey?  Survey hounds?  The doomsayers who always speak up on the web? Or the masses that make up the core of TV fans of NASCAR?

One of Brian France's statements was that the majority of fans don't like points racing.  Are these the same fans that TV networks cater to, with replayed race wrecks?  Those aren't fans. Those are lookey loos.  I've seen it in sports bars.  The only time the crowd looks at the NASCAR TV is during the wreck footage networks continually pitch out there to viewers to sell the sport.

Phhffft.

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NASCAR's new rules for winning the championship turns a blind eye towards the establishment of using points to win a contest. It turns a blind eye towards consistent participation and performance results.  They've just made this the new reality TV of an all-or-nothing sport.

We saw the new qualifying process which was a great change, making qualifying a bit more susceptible to on-track situations and maybe a more fun to experience.  Not to mention making for a shorter qualifying process that can take less time on TV.

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The changes we're seeing for the Chase is that now there will be 16 cars in the field of the Chase, up from 12.

To qualify, anyone with a win from the regular season gets in the Chase field.  Fifteen contenders will get in on wins, the 16th will be by points.  If they don't have 15 winners after the first 26 races, then, and only then, will points be used to fill out the field.

(Looking back in past seasons, they'll have plenty of takers, so I don't think they'll be using points to fill in the field.)

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Once in the chase, cars will be eliminated every 3 races (a round) until we're down to the final 4 competitors at Homestead.

In each round, if someone wins a race, they move on.  If not, accrued points will decide who moves on.

Though if the best driver gets a flat tire in this process of elimination rounds and doesn't recover, there goes his chances of struggling back into the top spots.

And how will Homestead be the deciding factor for champion?  It's a winner take all mentality, as who ever of the four cars beats out the other three to the checkered flag will be crowned the NASCAR champion.  Whether they win or come in 38th, as long as they beat out the other three.

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When NASCAR invented "The Chase," it used to be 10 drivers angling for that trophy or 23% of the field.

Now, they have 16 cars, or 37% of the field contending for the trophy.  If we leave well enough alone, sooner or later, they'll have the entire field back in it!  It's that full-circle thing.

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For me, here's where the concern sets in...

I'm trying to appreciate the change incorporated by NASCAR to make the sport more exciting, but all it has done is violate the tradition of a points-based system and performing consistently.

I wonder if it was NASCAR that truly made this change?  I've seen hints from various sources that the real money folks, those paying huge television rights monies to NASCAR, have a pretty solid say in some aspects of the sport.  But I digress...

With this elimination round scenario, I presume, is an attempt to make the sport more exciting or appealing.  But appealing to the new fan, not the established fan.

In my eyes, this has the word disappointment written all over it.

NASCAR said they're looking to put the emphasis back on winning which has me wondering why they could not just buffer a win with more points instead of this elimination process?


Looking back over past seasons, had this new "scoring elimination" process been used, the fields for the Chase would have looked different as some drivers would have dropped out while others would have slid in with wins, even if they were 26th in points in the field.

In 2012, the 17th and 18th finishing drivers would have qualified.  In 2011, the 13th, 14th, 17th, 19th, 23rd and 26th place teams would have qualified to contend for the Chase.


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Other aspects of this new system seem to make it possible to amplify actions from "boys have at it."

It impacts or brings to light, more concerns about "team orders," to help those who might need a win.

It amplifies bad LUCK, and will punish risk takers that lose.  Talladega is in the Chase.  That's the crap-shoot race that can take out 10, 15 or 20 cars in a single wreck.  Thus, Talladega could decide someone's fate for the entire season.  This and other restrictor plate tracks where anyone, even Danica Patrick, could end up winning.

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NASCAR Considers Changing CHASE, Again

Nothing says lack of confidence in a process than changing the process multiple times since its inception in 2004.

RUMORS HAVE IT THAT...

As it stands, the organization is looking to include almost half the field into the chase... SIXTEEN teams up from the twelve that they had upped it to a few years ago.

On top of the potential of having sixteen teams, those sixteen spots can be earned by merely having a win in the regular points season of the year.

If more than 16 teams get wins, priority will be given to those with more wins, and those teams that are full time.  (So much for the little guy!)

If there aren't 16 drivers with wins, then the field would be settled via points.

And once in the Chase, NASCAR is considering an elimination round every three races.

Wait... they're going to add cars to the CHASE field, then eliminate those extra cars in the process of the CHASE???  I'm confused.

Sigh.

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I get trying to make the sport more exciting.  The season when Stewart took the title from Edwards by sheer force of wins, was an incredible season.  But it was a fluke.

Yet NASCAR, as I can appreciate it, wants these tight points situations to keep occurring so that each season is as nerve-wracking and drama filled as possible.

But there is only so much one can do with a field that will be dominated by certain personalities every season.  There's only so much you can do when math is involved.

And on top of this, they are trying to push the "wins" envelope, as they want to keep tweaking the system to reward the risk-takers.

They want the field to race harder.

But unless you very heavily weight wins with points, no matter how you spin it, with wins are 10 points or 100 points or what have you, the results will almost always be the same.  The top performer should take the trophy when the season is done.  If not, it's a scandalous premise where the overall top performer is not rewarded for their work.

Double sigh.

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Racing is literally, like chess.  You start out slow (sending the pawns), move to the mid-game with some good moves (with the bishop, knight, rook, etc) and you finish it off with key moves you've been holding back until the last second. 

But if you charge out with all your high value pieces first (race hard), you'll have nothing left but pawns that can only do so much (unless they make it all the way across the board).

But then if one team "races hard," and the other team doesn't, it does not matter how many pawns you have, their rook and queen will eat them alive in the closing chapter.

If they want hard racing, they need to look at shortening races.

With Three To Go, Who Has The Edge?

With three races to go, NASCAR is calling the race for the championship the closest race in NASCAR history.  That's a little unfair considering that pre-new-points era, the points structure was so different that it's like comparing how fast light is, versus how fast a car is. 

For example, in their "One race to go" chart, they have Darrell Waltrip 2 points over Richard Petty as the closest points margin.  This was back in 1979.

The next closest is 3 points with Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.

But Carl and Tony's gap is three positions apart by today's standards, while the Waltrip/Petty gap was less then one position.

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			W	t5	t10
Matt Kenseth	2294		7	10	18
Jimmie Johnson	2294		5	14	21
Jeff Gordon	2267	-27	1	8	17
Kevin Harvick	2266	-28	3	8	18
Kyle Busch	2258	-36	4	16	20
Clint Bowyer	2239	-55	0	9	17
Dale Earnhardt Jr	2238	-56	0	7	19
Greg Biffle	2236	-58	1	4	13
Kurt Busch	2219	-75	0	10	15
Carl Edwards	2218	-76	2	9	16
Joey Logano	2209	-85	1	10	16
Ryan Newman	2188	-106	1	6	16
Kasey Kahne	2170	-124	2	9	12

But be it as it may, if tied is close, so be it.  It's a great tension builder, that's for sure.  And mathematically, everyone is still in it.  But realistically, I'm looking at everyone who is one-race's worth of points within the lead.  And that narrows it down to the top-5 drivers.

But both point leaders, Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are 27 points ahead of the next guy, Jeff Gordon, so the focus is on these guys.

But even though Jimmie and Matt are tied, with the tie-breaker going to Matt, Jimmie has caught Matt because four races ago, he was 9 points out of first.  And Jeff Gordon was 39 points out of first.

If you do the math, Jeff is coming on strong and Jimmie is overtaking Kenseth.

But these next three tracks can make or break these guys.

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So how did my predictions from earlier in the chase do?

I was looking at Johnson, Harvick and Kyle Busch as contending for the championship.  Well at least my selected drivers are in the top half of the field.

And Johnson is leaning on Kenseth, keeping him honest or more conservative.  Depending on how you look at it.  Either way, it should be interesting when Homestead comes around.

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With Six Races To Go, Who Do You Think Will Win It?

Back on Sept 23rd, I was touting my theoretical perspective that the top points leaders going into the Chase for the Cup will be the top contenders for the 2013 Sprint Cup Championship.

My perspective was to look at the points before they got reseeded into the Chase.  With that said, before Richmond, the top-five drivers in points were

Jimmie Johnson,
Clint Bowyer,
Kevin Harvick,
Carl Edwards and
Kyle Busch

But by virtue of top-ten finishes, I took a stand and narrowed my choices down to Johnson, Ky Busch and Logano.

Hmm.

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Then this is how they looked after Richmond, seeded into the Chase:

       
1         Matt Kenseth
2         Jimmie Johnson
3         Kyle Busch
4         Kevin Harvick
5         Carl Edwards
6         Joey Logano
7         Greg Biffle
8         Clint Bowyer
9         Dale Earnhardt Jr
10         Kurt Busch
11         Kasey Kahne
12         Martin Truex Jr

(Obviously, that was before Truex got the boot!)

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And after a race or two, here's what the points looked like after New Hampshire:

Matt Kenseth 2111
Kyle Busch (-14)
Jimmie Johnson (-18)
Carl Edwards (-36)
Greg Biffle (-38)
Kevin Harvick (-39)
Kurt Busch (-40)
Jeff Gordon (-42)
Ryan Newman (-47)
Clint (I didn't spin) Bowyer (-48)
Dale Earnhardt jr. (-62)
Joey Logano (-69)
Kasey Kahne (-71)

Look at that 14 point spread between 1st and 2nd!

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After Week 2, The Chase Points Unfold

I said a few weeks back that despite loading up the Chase field with 12 (13 this year, thanks to Chase-Gate) drivers is almost a moot point.  The top 3 to 5 guys in points headed into Richmond are the guys to beat.

Back then I sorted out the drivers via how they've performed via top-5 and 10 finishes.

I ended up looking at Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, by virtue of their top-10 finishes.  And if my stats would stay faithful, I "suggested" that this would be Kyle Busch's year, barring horrid luck.

Now, after two races in the books, the top-12 positions are splaying out nicely.

My Logano suggestion has panned out... he's 69 points behind Matt (Let's win the first two races) Kenseth.  69 points is pretty big, but not insurmountable yet.

My other two choices are hot on the tail of Kenseth, that being Kyle Busch (14 back) and Johnson (18 behind Kenseth).

The Chase Contenders List, and Their Odds of Winning It

OK, first up, I'm not sure I'm going to really try to do all the math that will create the odds for who will win the NASCAR 2013 Championship title.

Nope.  But what I am going to do is look out our top-12 contenders and look real carefully at what they've done so far this season, and take my best guess at their shot at the title.

			wins	t5's	t10's
1	Matt Kenseth	Leader	5	6	13
2	Jimmie Johnson	-3	4	9	15
3	Kyle Busch	-3	4	11	15
4	Kevin Harvick	-9	2	6	13
5	Carl Edwards	-9	2	8	13
6	Joey Logano	-12	1	8	14
7	Greg Biffle	-12	1	3	10
8	Clint Bowyer	-15	0	8	13
9	Dale Earnhardt Jr	-15	0	5	14
10	Kurt Busch	-15	0	8	13
11	Kasey Kahne	-15	2	8	11
12	Martin Truex Jr	-15	1	6	11

First up...

Usually, the top contenders in the list are the ones who will make it to the final race with any chance to take the trophy home.  Usually.  The back half of the field and wildcards are just spot fillers.

But ignoring their points structure, as they've been reseeded by NASCAR, I like looking at how they were positioned in points headed into Richmond as a clue as to what could happen in these last 10 races.

If I were to do that, I'd say that Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch may very well have a shot at taking the title this year, as these were your top-5 in drivers points headed into Richmond.

BUT...

Some guys turn it on this time of year while others try too hard and burn it off in these last 10 races leading up to Homestead.

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NASCAR Hits TV Ratings High Hopes While Ryan Newman Gets Trounced

 Last night's Richmond race was the race to watch on TV, as drivers were getting seeded into the 2013 Chase for the Championship.

And the race delivered a pretty suspenseful evening as the laps started to wind down and some were in, some were not, depending on where in the field they were at what point in the closing laps we were in.

Poor Newman.
Ryan Newman got himself into the lead with ten laps to go.  This effectively had him eliminate MWR driver Martin Truex Jr. from the Chase.

But suddenly another MWR driver spun down the front stretch bringing out a caution.  Everyone up front pitted and Newman lost the lead in the pits.

If the race had stayed green, many think Newman would have won it and found himself in the Chase.  But via a fortuitous (or questionable) spin by his teammate, Truex found himself in the hunt to get into the Chase.  And he did, via a points tie-breaker over Newman.

Then there was the restart where Carl Edwards beat the race leader to the line on the restart.  You know that rule where back in June, Jimmie Johnson was black-flagged for "jumping the start" while Montoya bobbled, hung back (I mean never got going) and never let Johnson get back behind him?  Yea, that rule was in neutral last night it seems.

Yea, well, any way, if Edwards was dinged for that move, one wonders if Newman would have still lost to Truex?

Be it as it may, after the race, Newman said that his chances to win the race were eliminated because he did not have a championship contending pit crew.

Sure, Newman was upset at the time.  But one has to wonder if that also wasn't a shot at the team that let him go for lack of funding, then replaced him and added another team to the garage.

Be it as it may, (rumors suggest Newman is headed to RCR, if I heard right the other day), it is what it is.

But what's of interest to me this morning is that the estimation for last night's live programming TV ratings for NASCAR have it prety much tied with FOX's college football broadcast.

Clinch Scenarios for Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup AT Richmond

Are you curious how some drivers are going to be able to get into the CHASE FOR THE CUP as they find themselves headed to Richmond?  Who has a decent or not so decent chance at making it into the The Chase?

Check out the press snippet NASCAR just sent out to the press:

Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Clinch Scenarios for Richmond

10 Drivers Vie for Five Remaining Spots

Below are the 2013 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup clinch scenarios for Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, the final race before the Chase field is set. Six drivers have clinched top-10 spots in the Chase: Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth. Kasey Kahne, on the strength of two wins, has clinched at least a Wild Card spot
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Four drivers control their top-10 clinching destiny. Regardless of the finishes of any other driver…

Dale Earnhardt Jr., currently seventh in points, will clinch a top-10 spot with a finish of 32nd or better, 33rd with at least one lap led or 34th with the most laps led.

Joey Logano, currently eighth in points, will clinch a top-10 spot with a finish of 11th or better, 12th and at least one lap led or 13th and the most laps led.

Greg Biffle, currently ninth in points, will clinch a top-10 spot with a finish of ninth or better, 10th and at least one lap led or 11th and the most laps led.

Kurt Busch, currently 10th in points, will clinch a top-10 spot by winning, finishing second with at least one lap led or finishing third with the most laps led.

The remaining mathematically eligible drivers need help to clinch a top-10 spot. Some, however, control their own Wild Card destiny (a win would guarantee at least a Wild Card spot).

Clinch scenarios for the remaining eligible drivers follow…

Jeff Gordon:  Currently 11th in points, Gordon would clinch at least a Wild Card spot with a victory at Richmond. Gordon, currently six points outside the top 10, remains eligible for a top 10 spot.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne, currently 12th in points, has already clinched at least a Wild Card spot. Ten points outside the top 10, Kahne remains eligible for a top 10 spot.

Martin Truex Jr.: Currently 13th in points, Truex would clinch at least a Wild Card spot with a victory at Richmond. Fifteen points outside the top 10, Truex remains eligible for a top 10 spot. Truex, currently holding the provisional No. 2 Wild Card spot, could clinch a Wild Card spot without a victory.

Ryan Newman: Currently 14th in points, Newman would clinch at least a Wild Card spot with a victory at Richmond. Twenty points outside the top 10, Newman remains eligible for a top 10 spot. Newman could clinch a Wild Card spot without a win (Logano and Biffle must remain in the top 10 or be replaced by Kahne; Newman must out-point Truex by six points; Gordon must not win; and Brad Keselowski or Jamie McMurray cannot win and overtake Newman).

Brad Keselowski: Currently 28 points outside the top 10, Keselowski remains eligible for a top-10 spot. Currently winless, Keselowski must win to be in contention for a Wild Card spot. Mathematically there will be at least two drivers outside the top 10 with wins. To clinch, Keselowski would need to win and outpoint Truex by 13 and Newman by eight (and would only need to outpoint one of these drivers if Kahne would displace a winless driver from the top 10). If Truex or Newman displaces Kurt Busch from the top 10, he would need to outpoint the other one-win driver remaining outside the top 10 by the requisite amount.

Jamie McMurray: Currently 39 points outside the top 10, McMurray remains eligible for a top-10 spot. Currently winless, McMurray must win to be in contention for a Wild Card spot. To clinch, McMurray would need to win and outpoint either Truex by 25 and Newman by 19 (and would only need to outpoint one of these drivers if Kahne would displace a winless driver from the top 10).  If Truex or Newman displace Kurt Busch from the top 10, he would need to outpoint the other one-win driver remaining outside the top 10 by the requisite amount.

Paul Menard: To clinch, Menard would need to win and outpoint Truex by 47 and Newman by 42 (and would only need to outpoint one of these drivers if Kahne would displace a winless driver from the top 10).  If Truex or Newman displace Kurt Busch from the top 10, he would need to outpoint the other one-win driver remaining outside the top 10 by the requisite amount.

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Can Keselowski Beat Johnson And Take the 2012 Championship?

No matter what Jimmie Johnson does, if Brad Keselowski finishes 15th or better, he wins the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship, stealing the chance at a 6th title from Johnson.  In other words, it's Brad's to lose.

Or is it?

If you look at some statistics from Homestead for our two drivers, the past performance numbers make it look like this is going to be a close title contention race.

Average Finish from Homestead: Keselowksi (20.3), Johnson (13.5)

Driver Rating from Homestead: : Keselowksi (68.9), Johnson (95.2)

If, per the numbers, Johnson finishes 13th and Keselowksi 20th, Brad still wins the championship.  With that 20 point difference, Johnson has to have Brad finish 20 spots behind him.

But do you seriously think that will happen?

The past performance numbers say one thing... but Brad's 2012 performance is anything but like his past.  In 2012, his average finish has been 9.9 and Johnson's has been 10.5.

Ever since Brad broke his ankle, he's been driving better than prior to that injury last year.  What the heck was it about that wreck?

Probably a mental reset on his part as he looked at the challenge of driving a little bit differently.

Yet even though everything looks all but locked up for Keselowski to win the 2012 Championship, any number of things can happen to him.  As unlikely as it seems, a flat tire, a failed part, trash on a grill or even a glint of sunlight on the window can change fortunes in an instant.  Or one of them could find Clint Bowyer running after them sometime during the race!

Anything is possible, but Brad Keselowski being our next champion is more than likely.  How do you feel about that?

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Yes, Darian Grubb Did Have Something To Hide After Denny Hamlin Won the Sylvania 300

Yesterday Denny Hamlin won the Sylvania 300 at the New Hampshire NASCAR.  It was impressive to say the least that earlier in the week Hamlin declared that they will win the race, and sure enough, he charged to the front of the pack long before the race was half over (Lap 93 to be exact.), and never looked back.

Earlier in the week, Hamlin boasted he would win New Hampshire and later sort of retracted it.  People fizzled about his retraction, but I think he was worried about the little things like lug nuts, tiny engine parts that could fail, etc.. And athletes can be a superstitious lot.

But Denny won, under the leadership of Tony Stewart's ex crew chief, Darian Grubb.  Joe Gibbs Racing Darian Grubb may or may not have anything to prove.

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Grubb helped chaperon Tony Stewart into his NASCAR Championship last year, but that was a swan song of an event, as Grubb was slated to leave the shop at the end of the year.  He was given his walking papers going into the 2011 Chase for the Cup.  But things, from the outside looking in, seemed like he was dumped after all was said and done.  And there are no specific clues as to who dumped him from Stewart-Haas Racing.

So some folks think he has something to prove, and by all rights, I think it would be a popular win with the fans if he did.  Not to mention being a crew chief to be the first to lead two different drivers to a championship, in consecutive years.

But...

After Denny Hamlin won, the TV media rushed to chat up Darian about the win and Darian saw the camera and scrambled to cover up his computer screen.  Folks instantly took to this moment on Twitter, wondering what was up and if he had something to hide?

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Duh.  Of course Darian has something to hide!

In this day and age of HD TV, computer screens have a lot to give up if the TV camera catches the screen.

As Steve Letarte told The Morning Drive guys on SiriusXM this morning, crew chiefs have a lot to hide, from their own setups to other teammates setups.  He also made note that other crew chiefs took careful note of this situation.

Letarte noted that the crews do accept the media into their work spaces, but need a bit of a heads up so that they can protect the sensitive info of the team.

What he didn't do was use a specific term that came to mind for me.  That's "company proprietary."  The information up there on their computers is sensitive to an organization and they have every right to hide their trade secrets.  Their edge, as you might see it.  And everyone needs that edge, no matter how slight.

And Darian had a lot of edge to hide last weekend, considering how dominant Hamlin was.

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So it's nothing super secret, just organization proprietary.  That edge that helped them dump on the other 42 teams at New Hampshire, that Darian Grubb was hiding.  (It wasn't like he had a yellow stickie on the screen to remind him to get rid of the jet fuel canister under his seat by race's end, or anything like that!)

Now, if he led Denny Hamlin to that championship, yea, that would be sweet for Grubb fans to experience.  Don't you think?  Is Denny about to do a repeat of what Tony Stewart did last year while led by Grubb?

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Is It Too Early to Tell About The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship? Sorting Some Simple Stats

So far, we've had one race to date, for the Chase for the Championship Cup in NASCAR.  That race saw Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson fighting for that win spot.  The top three spots were held by Chase Contenders but this is only one race or 10% of the total number of races held so far.

While many predict, we still have nine races of uncertainty facing the top-12 contenders.  And I still stop, take a breath and look back at how the standings looked before they were resorted, or maybe, better yet, whose top-10 and top-5 finishes so far to date, might actually predict this year's 2012 NASCAR Champion.

Going into Chicago last weekend, comparing the teams with the most top-10 finishes, the scale looks like this:

	W	T5	T10
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

(Chart sorted top-10, top-5, then wins)

I like to think that top-10's can show a sort of pattern of consistency that supports how a team can perform over the long haul...  and despite an undesirable amount of DNF's, Johnson leads the pre-chase pack standings.

But if we look at those who outperform the others and are much closer to winning than the rest of the pack, I'd like to look at how the teams sort out, via the number of top-5's through the regular season:

	W	T5	T10
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

(Chart sorted top-5, wins, then top-10's.)

Over the season, Dale Jr had performed well enough to rank in the top-3 of contenders when looking at the top-10 finishes, but when you break it down to see how anyone has done by pulling more top-5's, Jr. drops down the list while Johnson retains the top spot.

The only time the top spot changes is when we look at the Chase contenders, sorted by wins, then top-5's and filtered by top-10 finishes:

	W	T5	T10
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

When sorted via wins, suddenly the chart looks different, where Johnson is third looking up at Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin.

But where do you weight how you think the teams will perform in the next upcoming 9 races?

Right now, if I were to average out the above result charts, without looking at anything else, here's what that would look like:

Jimmie Johnson

Brad Keselowski

Denny Hamlin

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Greg Biffle

Tony Stewart

Matt Kenseth

Clint Bowyer

Kasey Kahne

Martin Truex Jr.

Jeff Gordon

Kevin Harvick

Statistically speaking (In the most basic sense), that's the prediction.  But does that look right to you?

But let's not forget that some teams perform better seasonally.  I've seen teams perform pretty poorly in the first 1/3 of a season and then as the weather warmed up or later on in the season, cooled down, their performance improves.  Or the fact that some teams excel at a specific track or whose luck can be a bit nasty.

Last year we watched Jimmie Johnson choke as he made a few mistakes in The Chase, eliminating himself.  If he chokes again, that leaves Brad Keselowski at the top.  And Penske does have something to prove in NASCAR and needs to get back on top.  And Joe Gibbs racing sure would love to get themselves THE trophy too.  It's been a while since they've heralded the sport as a championship team.

And then there was what Tony Stewart did last year, which many considered the inconceivable of dominating the Chase and winning it by an all-out charge.  Nothing I've ever seen before in the sport of NASCAR.  But he did, and that's put predictions on eggshells, as folks wonder if someone in this pack can do that again.  I'm thinking no.  But...

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This simplistic look at finishes does not account for many things, but I thought I'd back out of the complication of variables and just look at the end-results from the season before the Chase races.   I will revisit this premise in a few races, but for now, this is my no-ulcer review of who could end up being the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion.

For the moment, the only three drivers who have fired a shot across the bow of the other contenders were Brad K., Jimmie J. and Kasey K.  The top-3 finishers last week.  But now, we're at at different track that requires different tactics and setups.  Now we see who will survive this new track type and possibly stand out a bit more.

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NASCAR Chase Contenders Simulcast & Telecast on Wed (9-12) From House of Blues

Ah, what better way to chat with the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers who are contending for the 2012 championship, than to have a sit-down at the House of Blues in Chicago, cause there will be 11 drivers having the blues after the season comes to a close!

via press release

On September 12 at the House of Blues Chicago, the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup will officially get underway with the first-ever NASCAR Contenders Live sponsored by Toyota and Sprint.

12 Drivers, 12 Strategies, 12 Opinions on one stage. The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup contenders will reveal their strategies and insight on how to win the prized NASCAR Sprint Cup Series trophy!

WATCH LIVE ONLINE ON NASCAR.COM & SPEED.COM

WEDNESDAY (9/12) 2PM CST / 3PM EST

WATCH THE SHOW ON SPEED TV

THURSDAY (9/13) – 6PM CST / 7PM EST

NASCAR Chase Drivers Cross-Country Media Blitz Continues...

via press release

All Over The Map: Chase Drivers Continue Cross-Country Media Blitz

10 Drivers Visit 10 Markets During 'Chase Across America' Day 2

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Sept. 11, 2012) – Ten different drivers embarked on a 10-city media blitz Tuesday as Day 2 of 'Chase Across America' kicked into high gear.

NASCAR's second-annual cross-country media tour – in which the 12 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers visit the 10 Chase track markets, New York City and Bristol, Conn. – featured events ranging from pep rallies to baseball games, and boat tours to firefighting lessons.

Below is a rundown of each of today's events. For more information, photos, audio and video of today's events, visit NASCARMedia.com throughout the evening and tomorrow.

#NeverForget: Hamlin Visits National Guard On 9/11 Anniversary: In a few weeks, members of the 169th Aviation Regiment National Guard unit in Concord, N.H. will continue the freedom fight and ship off to Afghanistan. Denny Hamlin paid them a visit (and his appreciation) before that could happen. "It's an awesome day for me to be here on 9-11," Hamlin said. "And these guys and girls are the reason we are still here because of what they do to protect our country.  It's really exciting to meet with them before they are deployed for Afghanistan.  It means a lot to me just to meet them today." The troops will attend the New Hampshire race, and Hamlin, ever confident, invited them to his Victory Lane post-race celebration.

Keselowski's On Fire: How appropriate. Brad Keselowski, on fire right now after scoring more points  over the last 10 races (378) than any NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver, visited a Chicago-area firehouse and tested his skills at putting out fires. Keselowski joined firefighters at Engine Co. 70 in Edison Park and took part in various firefighting skill challenges. Keselowski received a token of appreciation for his participation: an authentic firefighter's helmet shield, which he plans to place inside his No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge for Sunday's race. Chicagoland Speedway kicks off the Chase this Sunday at 2 p.m. on ESPN.

Kahne's A Big Phan: Kasey Kahne, the Chase's No. 1 Wild Card, attended the Miami Marlins-Philadelphia Phillies game at Citizens Bank Park in advance of Dover International Speedway's Sept. 30th Chase race. As part of the festivities, Kahne will put his improv skills to the test during a 5th inning sketch with the Philly Phanatic, the Phillies' famed mascot.

Real Men Wear (And Paint) Pink: Kevin Harvick, a world-class artist when a steering wheel's in his hand, struggled a bit when the instrument in question was a paint brush. At Talladega Superspeedway in advance of the track's Oct. 7 Chase race, Harvick helped paint Talladega pink in honor of National Breast Cancer Awareness in October. The usually confident Harvick was anything but during the wall refurbishing portion of the day, saying speed was not his thing when it came to painting. "I'm going to get to Chicago tonight splattered in pink paint, and I'm OK with that," Harvick said.

DJII Loves RGIII: Heading into today's visit to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn., Las Vegas sportsbooks set the over/under on Robert Griffin III (aka RGIII) mentions by Washington Redskins fanatic Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 52½. Those who bet the "over" won by lunchtime. Of course, that's all an exaggeration, but Earnhardt did express his excitement over the Redskins' rookie quarterback throughout his day-long visit to ESPN, which included a go-kart race against SportsCenter anchor Jay Crawford, lunch with fantasy football guru Matthew Berry and appearances on Mike and Mike, Pardon the Interruption, NFL Live and NASCAR Now.

Truex Sneaky Good: Maybe it's an omen. Martin Truex Jr. visited Sprint's Kansas campus to meet with media, fans and members of the Kansas and Missouri National Guard. On display: the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship trophy. Truex was the first driver to see it as the Chase opens on Sunday. Could he be the last to see it after the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway? Most consider Truex a darkhorse pick to win the title: "In a way it is good, there is less pressure on the team but it is a joke that we are being picked to finish 12th, probably the same people that said we wouldn't make the Chase." Kansas Speedway will host its Chase race on Oct. 21.

Biffle's Got Some Added Pep In His Step: Greg Biffle, a two-time winner during the regular season, received a champion's welcome during his trip to Martinsville Speedway in advance of the track's Chase race on Oct. 28. Three local high schools congregated to "adopt" Biffle as their favorite driver during the Chase, holding a massive pep rally involving upwards of 600 students. Cheerleaders welcomed Biffle with this cheer:

We want a victory

Help him out

Bulldog Fans

Spell it out

B-I-F-F-L-E!

B-I-F-F-L-E!

One more time

B-I-F-F-L-E!"

"It was a great program," Biffle said. "I really enjoy getting to see the kids so excited and so pumped up. It was fun for me to come and see the No. 16 on the scoreboard and the cheers the cheerleaders have been working on and all the people in the stands…so it was a lot of fun, and a satisfying feeling. It was important for me to be able to talk to the students today."

Bowyer's A Homecoming King: If Clint Bowyer can free up some time, he's got a penciled in date for the big Homecoming Dance. Seriously. Bowyer took part in a pep rally of his own involving three Texas high schools in advance of Texas Motor Speedway's Chase race on Nov. 4. During the rally, Rachel Blum, a 10th grader at Northwest High School asked Bowyer to be her Homecoming date. He said he was busy, but did invite her to be his guest at the race in November. Befitting Texas' reputation, the event – and its participants – were grand. At one point, Bowyer asked: "Did you see the size of some of those kids? Everything's bigger in Texas. The high schoolers are even bigger in Texas! That kid was like 6'8, 280."

Kenseth: The Chase's Aquaman: Matt Kenseth can wheel an 850 horsepower, 3,500-pound stock car as well as the next guy. But maneuvering the 2,800-horspower, 90-TON United States Coast Guard Diamondback coastal patrol boat? That might pose a problem. Kenseth toured the largest and busiest Coast Guard station in the country – the United States Coast Guard District 7 base in Miami Beach during his stop on the Chase Across America media tour. There, he gave the Diamondback a spin. "Just driving it, it's always cool," Kenseth said. "I'm always interested in anything with an engine on it and how it works. These things are really technologically advanced, and they had a lot of really neat stuff in there. I really enjoyed learning about the ship. … It has been a great experience. I learned a lot about the Coast Guard today, what they do for us, what they do for everybody. It's great to be out here on the anniversary of 9/11, and obviously the military and the Coast Guard do a lot to protect us and keep us free." Homestead-Miami Speedway will host the season-finale on Nov. 18.

Gordon A Phoenix Son: Tuesday's media and fan Q&A sessions in Phoenix with Jeff Gordon quickly morphed into a turn-back-the-clock retrospective. The two major topics of conversation: Gordon's clutch performance at Richmond International Raceway that earned him a Chase spot, and his mustache. Gordon recently tweeted that if he made the Chase, he'd re-grow the same mustache he sported when he first entered NASCAR in the early 90s. "I don't know if it (bringing back the mustache) will be as hip as Johnny Depp's," Gordon said. "Although my wife would approve if that." And on racing his way into the Chase: 'This team never gave up and showed that last Saturday night. Now we're just fired up. After Richmond, anything is possible."

One To Go: Stewart Visits Charlotte Motor Speedway: Next Tuesday, Sept. 18, Tony Stewart will visit Charlotte Motor Speedway for a Q&A with CMS season ticket holders and Bank of America employees. The track will we announce a pre-race country music concert and a military support program with Wounded Warriors for the Bank of America 500 on Oct. 13.

Annual Chase Media Day Set For Wednesday: All 12 drivers will congregate at downtown Chicago's House of Blues on Wednesday for the annual Chase Media Day. Media availability will run from 11:15 a.m.-1 p.m. CT. Following media availability, the 12 drivers will take part in 'NASCAR Contenders Live' — the ultimate fan Q&A event, sponsored by Toyota and Sprint. At the event, contenders will share their strategies on how they plan to win the ultimate prize: the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship trophy.

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The Chase For The 2012 NASCAR Championship Is On

Well, we now know who the twelve championship contenders will be for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season.  The 12 are in and they've been reseeded in points positions, due to their wins in the regular season and there's a 12 point spread between first and 12th.

Whether they're your favorite drivers or not.  Whether you feel they deserve this or not, this is "the twelve."

The drivers (and their new points) are

1. Denny Hamlin    2012
2. Jimmie Johnson    2009
3. Tony Stewart    2009
4. Brad Keselowski    2009
5. Greg Biffle    2006
6. Clint Bowyer    2006
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.    2003
8. Matt Kenseth    2003
9. Kevin Harvick    2000
10. Martin Truex Jr.    2000
11. Kasey Kahne    2000*
12. Jeff Gordon    2000*

*Wildcards do not benefit from bonus points for wins from the regular season.  That's reserved for the top-10 drivers only, who drive into the top-10 spots.
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As you can see, the points leader coming into Richmond, Greg Biffle, was shuffled to 5th, but only 6 points back from first.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. was shoved from 2nd to 7th.  Matt Kenseth, from 3rd to 8th and so forth.  Hamlin, by virtue of his regular season wins, was pumped from 7th to 1st in the standings.  Jimmie Johnson, 4th to 2nd.  Tony Stewart, 10th to 3rd.

And the questions arise...

• Will Jimmie Johnson pull off another championship?
• Can Tony Stewart repeat?
• Can Denny Hamlin take advantage of his bonus points that put him in first?
• Or can Dale Earnhardt Jr. pull off the unthinkable and give Junior Nation their first Cup Championship?
• Or with Kenseth leaving Roush, will he take the championship, then leave for JGR?

Those are just a few questions we have.

There are some expectations that Johnson will contend.  He and Dale Earnhardt Jr had the most 1op-10 finishes of the lead pack going into Richmond.  Jimmie Johnson had the most top-5's of the gang, and Denny Hamlin was right behind him in the top-5 finishes.

But with the new rule change that will take affect in Chicago effecting back end mountings, many are wondering if the HMS garage teams will be able to handle the difference in car handling.  Or will the No. 48 team adapt as they've always done?

Last year Tony Stewart was pretty smug about going into the Chase, boasting about how we had not seen anything yet.  And then he backed it up.  But this year, he's been pretty quiet.  Like they're struggling.  He came into Richmond 10th in points.  But then again last year after the Richmond race, he started out 9th in points.

Denny Hamlin seems to be the one on a hot streak at the moment, but will that carry over into the next 10 races?

Or can Dale Earnhardt Jr. actually pull this off?  Were they dependent on the backend offset or not?  Will they stay consistent and out drive the other 11 drivers, over the long haul?

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For me, aside from Stewarts stalwart performance last year, I don't think anyone who was outside the top-5 will contend.  They've had all year to contend and they haven't.  In previous years, wildcards get in, but hang out at the back of the top-12 points pack.  They're wildcards for a reason.

2012 Predictive Logic:

With that mindset of mine, this means I should be predicting that Biffle, Earnhardt. Jr., Kenseth, Johnson and Truex Jr. will the the ones fighting it out up front for the championship.  Now that would generate huge headlines, if an Earnhardt was racing for another title.

But I'm willing to be surprised.  Surprised again by a Stewart come back or a Hamlin hotstreak!

We'll see.

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Whose Missing From The 2012 Chase?

Of course, those missing are Kyle Busch, who missed being the wild card by a few points while Jeff Gordon drove his butt off to get in.  Or the presence of Carl Edwards, who all but had the title in the bag last year, except for that crazy run that Tony Stewart had in the last 10 races of the year.

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Richmond was marred with rain delays, but nothing seemed to top the excitement and conjecture about the two wild card spots.  Now that this storyline panned out in the dramatic fashion that is good for NASCAR, now we have 10 races to see who gets themselves the 2012 NASCAR championship.

And will it have the drama that last year did?  Last year was pretty exciting and I don't remember any season having that much of a dramatic setting as Tony Stewart plowed through the ranks and took the Cup away from Carl Edwards.

But again, I'd love to be surprised and have another incredible season end rather than a snoozer where all someone has to do is start their engine to lock up the title.

So Who Are The NASCAR Wild Card Contenders Going Into Richmond??

Headed to Richmond, we have a few drivers poised to snag a wild card spot in the Chase for the Cup.  As it stands, if nothing changes, Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch are those wild cards.  But it's Richmond!  Anything can change there.

And though they're all desperate to get into the Chase, of this bunch, I think Carl Edwards is the most dangerous.  His rep precedes him and if he's looking at the checkered flag over the roof on only one car in his way, my bet is that car is going to get man-handled coming out of turn 4 if Edwards has the car for it.

It should be a pretty fun night this Saturday night... well, at least for the fans of the sport.

I wonder if everyone will warm up their "helmet tossing" arms before getting into their cars?

All NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers eligible to capture a Wild Card spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup includes:

·         Kasey Kahne, driver of No. 5 Quaker State Chevrolet
·         Kyle Busch, driver of the No. 18 M&Ms Toyota
·         Jeff Gordon, driver of the No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet
·         Marcos Ambrose, driver of the No. 9 MAC Tools Ford
·         Ryan Newman, driver of the No. 39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet
·         Joey Logano, driver of the No. 20 Home Depot Toyota
·         Carl Edwards, driver of the No. 99 Kellogg's Ford
·         Paul Menard, driver of the No. 27 Menards-Moen Chevrolet

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The Chase for the Cup: Four Locked In, Others Licking Their Chops!

Going into Atlanta, four drivers are locked into NASCAR's Chase for the Cup...

1. Greg Biffle,
2. Jimmie Johnson,
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.,
4. Matt Kenseth.

Unless something goes horribly wrong, spots five through ten will or could include Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart.

Those outside the top-10, looking at the two wildcard spots (11th and 12th) include those in the 11th to 20th spots, with wins:

(W1) Kasey Kahne (2)
(W2) Kyle Busch    (1)
Jeff Gordon    (1)
Marcos Ambrose    (1)
Joey Logano    (1)

As you can see, Kahne and Kyle Busch right now are the two wildcards set to be in the Chase, if nothing changes as far as the number of wins or points gained.  Kasey Kahne seems locked in.

Now Kahne is a few points outside of 10th.  (16)  If Stewart falters and Kahne does well over the next two weeks, then he'll be in the top-10 and the landscape for the Chase can change a bit, but Tony has 3 wins, so he may very well have a wildcard locked up, regardless.

What's amazing is that Carl Edwards is not in this list.  He's 12th in points, but with no win.  Look out drivers if Carl has a chance to win and improve his lot in life, you know he'll do what it takes!

The other aspect to look at are those Michael Waltrip Racing teams, both in the top-10, getting ready to lock themselves into the Chase.

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RANK		DRIVER	PTS BEHIND	WINS
1	-	Greg Biffle	Leader	2
2	-	Jimmie Johnson	-11	3
3	-	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	-15	1
4	-	Matt Kenseth	-26	1
5	-	Martin Truex Jr.	-52	0
6	-	Clint Bowyer	-55	1
7	-	Brad Keselowski	-59	3
8	-	Denny Hamlin	-75	3
9	-	Kevin Harvick	-82	0
10	-	Tony Stewart	-103	3
W1   11	-	Kasey Kahne	-119	2
12	-	Carl Edwards	-137	0
W2   13	-	Kyle Busch	-142	1
14	-	Jeff Gordon	-158	1
15	-	Ryan Newman	-161	1
16	-	Marcos Ambrose	-170	1
17	-	Paul Menard	-175	0
18	-	Joey Logano	-211	1
19	-	Jamie McMurray	-251	0
20	-	Jeff Burton	-272	0

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