No matter what Jimmie Johnson does, if Brad Keselowski finishes 15th or better, he wins the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship, stealing the chance at a 6th title from Johnson. In other words, it's Brad's to lose.
Or is it?
If you look at some statistics from Homestead for our two drivers, the past performance numbers make it look like this is going to be a close title contention race.
Average Finish from Homestead: Keselowksi (20.3), Johnson (13.5)
Driver Rating from Homestead: : Keselowksi (68.9), Johnson (95.2)
If, per the numbers, Johnson finishes 13th and Keselowksi 20th, Brad still wins the championship. With that 20 point difference, Johnson has to have Brad finish 20 spots behind him.
But do you seriously think that will happen?
The past performance numbers say one thing... but Brad's 2012 performance is anything but like his past. In 2012, his average finish has been 9.9 and Johnson's has been 10.5.
Ever since Brad broke his ankle, he's been driving better than prior to that injury last year. What the heck was it about that wreck?
Probably a mental reset on his part as he looked at the challenge of driving a little bit differently.
Yet even though everything looks all but locked up for Keselowski to win the 2012 Championship, any number of things can happen to him. As unlikely as it seems, a flat tire, a failed part, trash on a grill or even a glint of sunlight on the window can change fortunes in an instant. Or one of them could find Clint Bowyer running after them sometime during the race!
Anything is possible, but Brad Keselowski being our next champion is more than likely. How do you feel about that?
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