Has Lady Luck Graced Brad Keselowski? Will Foul Play Erupt At Homestead?

When the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season started with this new points structure, I knew that this system would not allow too many mulligans.  You could get away with one or two bad days, but they better be early on so you have time to recover.  Case in point might be Jimmie Johnson's fantastic result from the first race of the season at Daytona.

But by season's end, we had ourselves twelve Cup contenders.

Again... I thought to myself that with only ten races in the Chase for the Cup, my guesstimate was that the top-12 drivers could maybe get away with one mulligan a piece.  And past Chases have shown that everyone pretty much encounters a situation in these last ten races that a mulligan happens.  But usually something tends to happen to everyone of the twelve contenders.  Then by the last race or two, the teams have sorted themselves back out and the race is on for the championship.

But Brad Keselowski has shaken off the dark side of lady luck and has competed consistently.  In the first nine races of the Chase, he finished 11th of better, shoring up a pretty decent run at Jimmie Johnson.  Here's how they've both stacked up over the last nine races of the Chase

B.K.: 1st,  6th, 1st,  7th, 11th, 8th, 6th, 2nd, &   6th.
 J.J.: 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 17th,  3rd, 9th, 1st, 1st, & 32nd.

And that decent run has paid off when Johnson had his 2nd fumble last week at Phoenix, due to a "tire bead" of all things.

No folks are wondering, if something goes well enough for a long enough period of time, when will the other shoe drop?  And I have to wonder if the Penske team, taking every measure possible, can't help but wonder if lady luck (the dark side) might not finally rear her head.  (The force is strong in this one, ask Jimmie last weekend!)

If nothing goes wrong, all Brad has to do is cruise to a 15th or better position to take the championship.  And per his stats, plus adding how the team has been performing this year, I expect that to happen. Barring the thing the team and Brad's fans are worried about.

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I Don't Think So

Someone had sent me an email asking if I thought an HMS related team might not try taking out BK?  And to back their guess, they pointed to how Jeff Gordon took out Bowyer right in front of BK at Phoenix. 

My reply was that last weekend's incident took place when it was available for Gordon to effect his frustration.  He didn't have the car or luxury of waiting and plotting until just the right time.

As far as team orders go...  I just don't see that happening.  At least as far as wrecking BK goes.  That seems absurd.  

Now if Brad finds himself surrounded by pit stalls occupied by HMS teams, he might have a few challenges in the pits.  That, I'd expect!  It is one of those pesky nuances of sports.  But I don't expect blatant wrecking.  That's not what these guys are about.  Well, most of the time unless you spend the entire season ticking off Jeff Gordon, or Carl Edwards.  Or Juan Pablo is 5 laps down racing hard for a 30th place finish!

But that's another tirade for another day.  Maybe during the off-season.

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What are your thoughts on the matters?  Think lady luck might step up at Homestead?  Can Brad pull off a NASCAR championship for himself and Penske, all things considered?  Will something devious happen to help "five-time" make it "six-time?"

-Bruce