Is It Too Early to Tell About The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship? Sorting Some Simple Stats

So far, we've had one race to date, for the Chase for the Championship Cup in NASCAR.  That race saw Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson fighting for that win spot.  The top three spots were held by Chase Contenders but this is only one race or 10% of the total number of races held so far.

While many predict, we still have nine races of uncertainty facing the top-12 contenders.  And I still stop, take a breath and look back at how the standings looked before they were resorted, or maybe, better yet, whose top-10 and top-5 finishes so far to date, might actually predict this year's 2012 NASCAR Champion.

Going into Chicago last weekend, comparing the teams with the most top-10 finishes, the scale looks like this:

	W	T5	T10
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

(Chart sorted top-10, top-5, then wins)

I like to think that top-10's can show a sort of pattern of consistency that supports how a team can perform over the long haul...  and despite an undesirable amount of DNF's, Johnson leads the pre-chase pack standings.

But if we look at those who outperform the others and are much closer to winning than the rest of the pack, I'd like to look at how the teams sort out, via the number of top-5's through the regular season:

	W	T5	T10
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

(Chart sorted top-5, wins, then top-10's.)

Over the season, Dale Jr had performed well enough to rank in the top-3 of contenders when looking at the top-10 finishes, but when you break it down to see how anyone has done by pulling more top-5's, Jr. drops down the list while Johnson retains the top spot.

The only time the top spot changes is when we look at the Chase contenders, sorted by wins, then top-5's and filtered by top-10 finishes:

	W	T5	T10
Brad Keselowski	4	11	16
Denny Hamlin	4	11	13
Jimmie Johnson	3	13	18
Tony Stewart	3	10	13
Greg Biffle	2	10	15
Kasey Kahne	2	8	14
Clint Bowyer	2	6	16
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	18
Matt Kenseth	1	10	16
Jeff Gordon	1	7	12
Martin Truex Jr.	0	6	15
Kevin Harvick	0	4	11

When sorted via wins, suddenly the chart looks different, where Johnson is third looking up at Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin.

But where do you weight how you think the teams will perform in the next upcoming 9 races?

Right now, if I were to average out the above result charts, without looking at anything else, here's what that would look like:

Jimmie Johnson

Brad Keselowski

Denny Hamlin

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Greg Biffle

Tony Stewart

Matt Kenseth

Clint Bowyer

Kasey Kahne

Martin Truex Jr.

Jeff Gordon

Kevin Harvick

Statistically speaking (In the most basic sense), that's the prediction.  But does that look right to you?

But let's not forget that some teams perform better seasonally.  I've seen teams perform pretty poorly in the first 1/3 of a season and then as the weather warmed up or later on in the season, cooled down, their performance improves.  Or the fact that some teams excel at a specific track or whose luck can be a bit nasty.

Last year we watched Jimmie Johnson choke as he made a few mistakes in The Chase, eliminating himself.  If he chokes again, that leaves Brad Keselowski at the top.  And Penske does have something to prove in NASCAR and needs to get back on top.  And Joe Gibbs racing sure would love to get themselves THE trophy too.  It's been a while since they've heralded the sport as a championship team.

And then there was what Tony Stewart did last year, which many considered the inconceivable of dominating the Chase and winning it by an all-out charge.  Nothing I've ever seen before in the sport of NASCAR.  But he did, and that's put predictions on eggshells, as folks wonder if someone in this pack can do that again.  I'm thinking no.  But...

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This simplistic look at finishes does not account for many things, but I thought I'd back out of the complication of variables and just look at the end-results from the season before the Chase races.   I will revisit this premise in a few races, but for now, this is my no-ulcer review of who could end up being the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion.

For the moment, the only three drivers who have fired a shot across the bow of the other contenders were Brad K., Jimmie J. and Kasey K.  The top-3 finishers last week.  But now, we're at at different track that requires different tactics and setups.  Now we see who will survive this new track type and possibly stand out a bit more.

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