The Chase For The 2012 NASCAR Championship Is On

Well, we now know who the twelve championship contenders will be for the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season.  The 12 are in and they've been reseeded in points positions, due to their wins in the regular season and there's a 12 point spread between first and 12th.

Whether they're your favorite drivers or not.  Whether you feel they deserve this or not, this is "the twelve."

The drivers (and their new points) are

1. Denny Hamlin    2012
2. Jimmie Johnson    2009
3. Tony Stewart    2009
4. Brad Keselowski    2009
5. Greg Biffle    2006
6. Clint Bowyer    2006
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.    2003
8. Matt Kenseth    2003
9. Kevin Harvick    2000
10. Martin Truex Jr.    2000
11. Kasey Kahne    2000*
12. Jeff Gordon    2000*

*Wildcards do not benefit from bonus points for wins from the regular season.  That's reserved for the top-10 drivers only, who drive into the top-10 spots.
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As you can see, the points leader coming into Richmond, Greg Biffle, was shuffled to 5th, but only 6 points back from first.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. was shoved from 2nd to 7th.  Matt Kenseth, from 3rd to 8th and so forth.  Hamlin, by virtue of his regular season wins, was pumped from 7th to 1st in the standings.  Jimmie Johnson, 4th to 2nd.  Tony Stewart, 10th to 3rd.

And the questions arise...

• Will Jimmie Johnson pull off another championship?
• Can Tony Stewart repeat?
• Can Denny Hamlin take advantage of his bonus points that put him in first?
• Or can Dale Earnhardt Jr. pull off the unthinkable and give Junior Nation their first Cup Championship?
• Or with Kenseth leaving Roush, will he take the championship, then leave for JGR?

Those are just a few questions we have.

There are some expectations that Johnson will contend.  He and Dale Earnhardt Jr had the most 1op-10 finishes of the lead pack going into Richmond.  Jimmie Johnson had the most top-5's of the gang, and Denny Hamlin was right behind him in the top-5 finishes.

But with the new rule change that will take affect in Chicago effecting back end mountings, many are wondering if the HMS garage teams will be able to handle the difference in car handling.  Or will the No. 48 team adapt as they've always done?

Last year Tony Stewart was pretty smug about going into the Chase, boasting about how we had not seen anything yet.  And then he backed it up.  But this year, he's been pretty quiet.  Like they're struggling.  He came into Richmond 10th in points.  But then again last year after the Richmond race, he started out 9th in points.

Denny Hamlin seems to be the one on a hot streak at the moment, but will that carry over into the next 10 races?

Or can Dale Earnhardt Jr. actually pull this off?  Were they dependent on the backend offset or not?  Will they stay consistent and out drive the other 11 drivers, over the long haul?

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For me, aside from Stewarts stalwart performance last year, I don't think anyone who was outside the top-5 will contend.  They've had all year to contend and they haven't.  In previous years, wildcards get in, but hang out at the back of the top-12 points pack.  They're wildcards for a reason.

2012 Predictive Logic:

With that mindset of mine, this means I should be predicting that Biffle, Earnhardt. Jr., Kenseth, Johnson and Truex Jr. will the the ones fighting it out up front for the championship.  Now that would generate huge headlines, if an Earnhardt was racing for another title.

But I'm willing to be surprised.  Surprised again by a Stewart come back or a Hamlin hotstreak!

We'll see.

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Whose Missing From The 2012 Chase?

Of course, those missing are Kyle Busch, who missed being the wild card by a few points while Jeff Gordon drove his butt off to get in.  Or the presence of Carl Edwards, who all but had the title in the bag last year, except for that crazy run that Tony Stewart had in the last 10 races of the year.

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Richmond was marred with rain delays, but nothing seemed to top the excitement and conjecture about the two wild card spots.  Now that this storyline panned out in the dramatic fashion that is good for NASCAR, now we have 10 races to see who gets themselves the 2012 NASCAR championship.

And will it have the drama that last year did?  Last year was pretty exciting and I don't remember any season having that much of a dramatic setting as Tony Stewart plowed through the ranks and took the Cup away from Carl Edwards.

But again, I'd love to be surprised and have another incredible season end rather than a snoozer where all someone has to do is start their engine to lock up the title.