With Three To Go, Who Has The Edge?

With three races to go, NASCAR is calling the race for the championship the closest race in NASCAR history.  That's a little unfair considering that pre-new-points era, the points structure was so different that it's like comparing how fast light is, versus how fast a car is. 

For example, in their "One race to go" chart, they have Darrell Waltrip 2 points over Richard Petty as the closest points margin.  This was back in 1979.

The next closest is 3 points with Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.

But Carl and Tony's gap is three positions apart by today's standards, while the Waltrip/Petty gap was less then one position.

-

			W	t5	t10
Matt Kenseth	2294		7	10	18
Jimmie Johnson	2294		5	14	21
Jeff Gordon	2267	-27	1	8	17
Kevin Harvick	2266	-28	3	8	18
Kyle Busch	2258	-36	4	16	20
Clint Bowyer	2239	-55	0	9	17
Dale Earnhardt Jr	2238	-56	0	7	19
Greg Biffle	2236	-58	1	4	13
Kurt Busch	2219	-75	0	10	15
Carl Edwards	2218	-76	2	9	16
Joey Logano	2209	-85	1	10	16
Ryan Newman	2188	-106	1	6	16
Kasey Kahne	2170	-124	2	9	12

But be it as it may, if tied is close, so be it.  It's a great tension builder, that's for sure.  And mathematically, everyone is still in it.  But realistically, I'm looking at everyone who is one-race's worth of points within the lead.  And that narrows it down to the top-5 drivers.

But both point leaders, Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are 27 points ahead of the next guy, Jeff Gordon, so the focus is on these guys.

But even though Jimmie and Matt are tied, with the tie-breaker going to Matt, Jimmie has caught Matt because four races ago, he was 9 points out of first.  And Jeff Gordon was 39 points out of first.

If you do the math, Jeff is coming on strong and Jimmie is overtaking Kenseth.

But these next three tracks can make or break these guys.

-

So how did my predictions from earlier in the chase do?

I was looking at Johnson, Harvick and Kyle Busch as contending for the championship.  Well at least my selected drivers are in the top half of the field.

And Johnson is leaning on Kenseth, keeping him honest or more conservative.  Depending on how you look at it.  Either way, it should be interesting when Homestead comes around.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

You can follow NASCAR Bits and Pieces on Google+, Facebook or Twitter if you're interested.
Thanks!