With Six Races To Go, Who Do You Think Will Win It?

Back on Sept 23rd, I was touting my theoretical perspective that the top points leaders going into the Chase for the Cup will be the top contenders for the 2013 Sprint Cup Championship.

My perspective was to look at the points before they got reseeded into the Chase.  With that said, before Richmond, the top-five drivers in points were

Jimmie Johnson,
Clint Bowyer,
Kevin Harvick,
Carl Edwards and
Kyle Busch

But by virtue of top-ten finishes, I took a stand and narrowed my choices down to Johnson, Ky Busch and Logano.

Hmm.

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Then this is how they looked after Richmond, seeded into the Chase:

       
1         Matt Kenseth
2         Jimmie Johnson
3         Kyle Busch
4         Kevin Harvick
5         Carl Edwards
6         Joey Logano
7         Greg Biffle
8         Clint Bowyer
9         Dale Earnhardt Jr
10         Kurt Busch
11         Kasey Kahne
12         Martin Truex Jr

(Obviously, that was before Truex got the boot!)

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And after a race or two, here's what the points looked like after New Hampshire:

Matt Kenseth 2111
Kyle Busch (-14)
Jimmie Johnson (-18)
Carl Edwards (-36)
Greg Biffle (-38)
Kevin Harvick (-39)
Kurt Busch (-40)
Jeff Gordon (-42)
Ryan Newman (-47)
Clint (I didn't spin) Bowyer (-48)
Dale Earnhardt jr. (-62)
Joey Logano (-69)
Kasey Kahne (-71)

Look at that 14 point spread between 1st and 2nd!

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OK, so I might be ruling out Logano.  And we also have a 13th participant this year because of other shady dealings that might have gone down.  And Jeff Gordon is making the best of that opportunity that NASCAR afforded him.

With six races left in the Chase, it's "technically" anyone's ball game.  But as it stands, after Kansas and the Hollywood Casino 400, the complexion of the points race is looking pretty interesting...

1    Matt Kenseth    leader    2183
2    Jimmie Johnson    -3    2180
3    Kevin Harvick    -25    2158
4    Jeff Gordon    -32    2151
5    Kyle Busch    -35    2148
6    Greg Biffle    -44    2139
7    Kurt Busch    -47    2136
8    Dale Earnhardt Jr    -54    2129
9    Clint Bowyer    -55    2128
10    Joey Logano    -59    2124
11    Carl Edwards    -60    2123
12    Ryan Newman    -73    2110
13    Kasey Kahne    -83    2100

Kenseth is still holding on, but Johnson has closed up that 14-point gap.  While Harvick, Gordon, Ky Busch aren't that far off.   Or as I like to put it, they are a bad day and one race worth of points behind Kenseth.

As for my predictions...
Johnson is still contending, while Kyle had a bad day at Kansas, is still within one day's race of Kenseth.

But as the weeks go on, (six to go), that spread where drivers are within a single day's race, is getting thinner.  After NH, we had 8 drivers within striking distance of the leader.  Now, after Kansas, we now have 6 lurking in the points draft.

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My 'top-10 finishes' theory is starting to look like a slippery slope.  But my 'top points contenders before reseeding' theory still has three guys looking at the tire dust of Kenseth's points.  (Johnson, Harvick and Ky Busch.)

Jeff Gordon is also starting to look more and more like a true wildcard, as he slinks up through the points.

Barring ESPN bumping our show for little league, women's volleyball for college post-game shows, we have another 6 exciting weeks to go.

We have the engine cracking Charlotte Motor Speedway on Oct 12th,

The fender crushing Talladega race on October 20th,

Then the temper flaring Martinsville Speedway on oct 27,

Followed by Texas, Phoenix and the finale, on November 17th, at Homestead.

I think Talladega and Martinsville are the real threats (random crap and angry accidents) to anyone's game and basic (bad) luck will moderate the rest of the races.

What do you guys think????


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