Johnson vs. Kenseth vs Harvick at Homestead Boils Down To Luck

We're headed into the final weekend of the 2013 Sprint Cup season.  It's coming down to three teams who are mathematically within reach of that big trophy.

Matt Kenseth is 28 points behind Jimmie Johnson.  Harvick is 34 points behind the 48-car helmer.

By plain appearances alone, the championship is Johnson's to lose.

If Jimmie Johnson finishes 23rd or better in Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, the championship is his.  No matter what.  {24th or better if he leads a lap and 25th or better if he leads the most laps.}

Driver Ratings:

Looking at the season-to-date driver ratings.  Johnson: 110.3, Kenseth: 110.0, Harvick: 95.0

Homestead Speedway stats:

Average finishes:  Johnson: 15.3;  Kenseth: 17.6;  Harvick: 7.9.

Homestead Driver Ratings

Johnson: 95.1;  Kenseth: 106.0;  Harvick: 100.1

-

Yet there's one more aspect that no one can calculate:

The one thing no one can predict is luck.  Luck could hold her hand and let the race run its course on Sunday. Or luck can take but a moment and ruin anyone's day.  Remember Mark Martin at Talladega a few years back, just before the green flag when his car veered left because his steering wheel broke?

The Tension

Yep, the tension that fans will be experiencing during the race will be based on what is going on around Jimmie Johnson.

Will a tiny $5 part go poof?

A tire go bad?

A competitor slip just enough to tweak a fender and ruin Johnson's day?

A pit road penalty?

Or even a silly error on Johnson's part.  He's made those over the last few years during the chase.  Keeping him out of contention.

Crap, even an extremely poorly placed bird shit could ruin his day.

-

If I were Kevin Harvick, I might secretly hope that Johnson and Kenseth rub fenders and give each other flat tires, letting him cruise to the championship.  (Without the crash...  just tire going down kind of pit stops.  Many of them.) 

Because face it, if Harvick does well enough and by the freakiest of chances, both Johnson and Kenseth finish 42nd and 43rd... or far enough back...  well, it would be an interesting parting gift from Kevin to RCR.

-

Despite the lack of a tight points race like seasons prior, there is still going to be tension in the air for Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick fans.  And more than likely the TV coverage is going to be annoying if you're a fan of any other driver because all cameras will probably be on the 48 car more often than not.  (To be honest, the TV guys have it tough trying to appease everyone...  but still.)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

You can follow NASCAR Bits and Pieces on
Google+, Facebook or Twitter if you're interested.
Thanks!
(Photos via NASCAR/Getty Images)