Analyzing The IRWIN Tools Night Race: Top-10, Wildcard, Bristol Track History and more

Headed into Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend, from past stats, it looks like that from the top-12 drivers in the points standings, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth might have an edge.  But those stats were before the repave of Bristol.

They've had a tire test at the track since the repave and I have not heard any heart-warming quotes about the job.  Not that it's a bad job, but that the high groove is now going to be a lot tougher and that it will be a while before it's worn in.

What expectations out there say is that now this track could favor the true wheel-men of the sport.  The drivers who are more comfortable hanging it out there at 100+ mph.  And if memory serves me right, one of those drivers is Greg Biffle.  I've watch this driver get loose at 190 mph and look comfortable doing it.

Below are various tables, from the top-10 drivers stats at Bristol, a chart for the wildcard race for spots 11 & 12, and some Bristol track stats and Tennessee racing stats.

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via press release:

Statistical Advance: Analyzing The IRWIN Tools Night Race

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (August 20, 2012) – Below is a look at some of the top statistical performers at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee going into the IRWIN Tools Night Race on August 25.

BRISTOL-SPECIFIC STATISTICS

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M / Bondo Ford)

·         Six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole

·         Average finish of 11.8

·         Average Running Position of 12.4, fourth-best

·         Driver Rating of 97.0, fifth-best

·         282 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.286 mph, fourth-fastest

·         5,513 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4%), third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 51 Hendrickcars.com Chevrolet)

·         Five wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole

·         Average finish of 13.1

·         Average Running Position of 12.9, fifth-best

·         Driver Rating of 94.0, sixth-best

·         698 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

·         5,049 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), sixth-most

·         373 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

·         Five wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s

·         Average finish of 10.6

·         Average Running Position of 13.2, seventh-best

·         Series-best Driver Rating of 102.3

·         Series-high 550 Fastest Laps Run

·         Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 114.326 mph

·         4,892 Laps in the Top 15 (65.1%), eighth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew Chevrolet)

·         One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s

·         Average finish of 11.8

·         Average Running Position of 14.1, eighth-best

·         Driver Rating of 88.1, 12th-best

·         791 Green Flag Passes, second-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.145 mph, eighth-fastest

·         4,498 Laps in the Top 15 (59.9%), ninth-most

·         317 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Fastenal Ford)

·         Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s; two poles

·         Average finish of 13.9

·         Average Running Position of 14.8, 11th-best

·         Driver Rating of 88.9, 11th-best

·         277 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most

·         4,897 Laps in the Top 15 (65.2%), seventh-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 AARP Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

·         Five wins, 15 top fives, 21 top 10s; five poles

·         Average finish of 12.1

·         Series-best Average Running Position of 9.6

·         Driver Rating of 99.8, third-best

·         310 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most

·         591 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.301 mph, third-fastest

·         6,131 Laps in the Top 15 (81.6%), second-most

·         403 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota)

·         Three top fives, six top 10s

·         Average finish of 15.8

·         Driver Rating of 86.3, 13th-best

·         272 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most

·         668 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.103 mph, 12th-fastest

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 RHEEM Chevrolet)

·         One win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s

·         Average finish of 12.4

·         Average Running Position of 14.1, ninth-best

·         Driver Rating of 89.5, eighth-best

·         234 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most

·         713 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.204 mph, seventh-fastest

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

·         One win, six top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole

·         Average finish of 14.6

·         Average Running Position of 12.9, sixth-best

·         Driver Rating of 93.2, seventh-best

·         428 Fastest Laps Run, second-most

·         5,331 Laps in the Top 15 (71.0%), fourth-most

·         310 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Valvoline NextGen Ford)

·         Two wins, 10 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole

·         Average finish of 11.6

·         Average Running Position of 10.3, second-best

·         Driver Rating of 100.8, second-best

·         368 Fastest Laps Run, third-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.321 mph, second-fastest

·         Series-high 6,169 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%)

·         Series-high 412 Quality Passes

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

·         Two wins, two top fives, two top 10s

·         Average finish of 10.4

·         Average Running Position of 12.4, third-best

·         Driver Rating of 99.4, fourth-best

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.275 mph, fifth-fastest

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet)

·         One top five, 12 top 10s; three poles

·         Average finish of 16.5

·         Average Running Position of 14.3, 10th-best

·         Driver Rating of 89.5, ninth-best

·         612 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.099 mph, 13th-fastest

·         5,187 Laps in the Top 15 (69.0%), fifth-most

·         356 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet)

·         One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; one pole

·         Average finish of 17.3

·         Average Running Position of 15.3, 13th-best

·         Driver Rating of 89.2, 10th-best

·         295 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most

·         Average Green Flag Speed of 114.135 mph, 10th-fastest

·         4,168 Laps in the Top 15 (55.5%), 12th-most

·         280 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Chase Contenders

The Top 10

Following Race 23 of 36

                                                                                Rank        Season

                                                                                Last          Driver

Driver                             Points   Wins      Poles        Week        Rating

1. Greg Biffle                  823       2           2               2           104.8

2. Matt Kenseth              803       1           1               3           103.6

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.     801       1           0               4           100.6

4. Jimmie Johnson       795       3           1               1           109.1

5. Brad Keselowski        776       3           0               5             96.2

6. Martin Truex Jr.         763       0           1               6             97.3

7. Clint Bowyer              757       1           0               7             91.3

8. Kevin Harvick            738       0           0              9              90.3

9. Tony Stewart              728       3           0              8             88.8

10. Denny Hamlin         727       2           2             10             97.5

    ___________________________________________________________

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2012 Top 12 at Bristol Motor Speedway

	Driver	Races	Poles	Wins	Top Fives	Top 10s	DNFs	Average Finish	Driver Rating
1	Greg Biffle	19	1	0	6	11	1	11.8	97.0
2	Matt Kenseth	25	1	2	10	17	3	11.6	100.8
3	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	25	0	1	7	12	1	11.8	88.1
4	Jimmie Johnson	21	1	1	6	12	1	14.6	93.2
5	Brad Keselowski	5	0	2	2	2	0	10.4	99.4
6	Martin Truex Jr.	13	0	0	2	2	1	19.3	80.1
7	Clint Bowyer	13	0	0	4	6	2	17.8	79.9
8	Kevin Harvick	23	0	1	9	12	2	12.4	89.5
9	Tony Stewart	27	1	1	6	8	2	17.3	89.2
10	Denny Hamlin	13	0	0	3	6	1	15.8	86.3
11	Kasey Kahne	17	1	0	3	6	3	19.8	83.4
12	Carl Edwards	16	2	2	4	7	1	13.9	88.9

* – Based on last 15 races at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Wild Card Standings Following: Michigan International Speedway

Pos.	Driver	Wins	Pts. Pos.	Points	Pts. From 10th
1	Kasey Kahne	2	11	694	-33
2	Ryan Newman	1	13	680	-47
3	Kyle Busch	1	14	669	-58
4	Jeff Gordon	1	16	650	-77
5	Marcos Ambrose	1	17	639	-88
6	Joey Logano	1	18	600	-127
7	Carl Edwards	0	12	689	-38
8	Paul Menard	0	15	665	-62
9	Jamie McMurray	0	19	571	-156
10	Jeff Burton	0	20	566	-161
The top-10 drivers will make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.  Positions 11 and 12 in the 12-driver Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup are Wild Cards, and will go to drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, as long as they are ranked in the top 20 in points. If multiple drivers outside the top 10 tie for wins, the tie-breaker will go to the race winner with the highest points position.

At Bristol Motor Speedway:

History

·         Groundbreaking for Bristol International Speedway, as Bristol Motor Speedway was originally known, took place in 1960. The track was an exact half-mile.

·         First NASCAR Sprint Cup race was July 30, 1961.

·         In the fall of 1969, the track was reshaped and re-measured to .533-miles.

·         The name changed to Bristol International Raceway in 1978.

·         The first night race was held in the fall of 1978.

·         The surface was changed from asphalt to concrete in 1992.

·         The name changed to Bristol Motor Speedway in May 1996.

·         The track was resurfaced between races in 2007.

·         A milling process took place between races in 2012, erasing the progressive banking in the upper groove of the turns.

Notebook

·         There have been 103 NASCAR Sprint Cup races since the first race there in 1961, two races each season.

·         All races have been scheduled for 500 laps, except for both races in 1976 and the second in 1977, which were 400 laps.

·         Fred Lorenzen won the first pole.

·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Jack Smith (with relief from Johnny Allen).

·         There have been 45 different pole winners, led by Cale Yarborough and Mark Martin (nine). Martin swept both poles at Bristol in 2009.

·         39 different drivers have won, led by Darrell Waltrip (12).

·         Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon each have five wins, most among active drivers.

·         The race winner has started from the pole 22 times, the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards, in the night race of 2008.

·         82 of 103 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots.

·         The deepest in the field that a race winner has started is 38th, by Elliott Sadler in 2001.

·         The last seven Bristol races had a margin of victory under one second.

·         Youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Bristol Motor Speedway winner: Kyle Busch (03/25/2007 – 21 years, 10 months, 23 days)

·         Oldest NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Bristol Motor Speedway winner: Dale Earnhardt (08/28/1999 – 48 years, 3 months, 30 days)

Bristol Motor Speedway Data

Race #: 24 of 36 (08-25-12)

Track Size: 0.533-miles

Banking/Corners: 26 degrees

Banking/Frontstretch: 5 to 9 degrees

Banking/Backstretch:  4 to 8 degrees

Race Length: 500 laps / 266.5 miles

Top 12 Driver Rating at Bristol

Kyle Busch............................... 102.3

Matt Kenseth............................. 100.8

Jeff Gordon................................ 99.8

Brad Keselowski......................... 99.4

Greg Biffle.................................. 97.0

Kurt Busch.................................. 94.0

Jimmie Johnson.......................... 93.2

Kevin Harvick.............................. 89.5

Ryan Newman............................. 89.5

Tony Stewart............................... 89.2

Carl Edwards.............................. 88.9

Dale Earnhardt Jr........................ 88.1

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2012 races (15 total) at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2011 pole winner:

Ryan Newman, Chevrolet (122.811 mph, 15.624 sec., 08-25-11)

2011 race winner:

Brad Keselowski, Dodge (96.753 mph, 2:45:16, 08-27-11)

Track qualifying record:

Ryan Newman, Dodge (128.709 mph, 14.908 sec., 03-21-03)

Track race record:

Chris Glotzbach, Chevrolet (101.074 mph, 2:38:12, 07-11-71)

NASCAR in Tennessee

·         There have been 164 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Tennessee.

Track Name	City	NSCS
Bristol Motor Speedway	Bristol	103
Chattanooga International Raceway	Chattanooga	2
Kingsport Speedway	Kingsport	3
Nashville Speedway	Lebanon	42
Smokey Mountain Raceway	Maryville	12
Tennessee-Carolina Speedway	Newport	2

·         101 drivers all-time in NASCAR's three national series have their home state recorded as Tennessee.

·         There have been 14 race winners from Tennessee in NASCAR's three national series:

Driver	NSCS	NNS	NCWTS
Darrell Waltrip	84	13	0
Sterling Marlin	10	2	0
Bobby Hamilton	4	1	10
Joe Lee Johnson	2	0	0
Trevor Bayne	1	1	0
Paul Lewis	1	0	0
Bobby Hamilton Jr.	0	5	0
Jeff Purvis	0	4	0
L.D. Ottinger	0	3	0
Mike Alexander	0	2	0
Casey Atwood	0	2	0
Brad Teague	0	1	0
Chad Chaffin	0	0	2
John King	0	0	1

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NBaP