Bruce's Chase for the Cup Handicapping

by Bruce Simmons

The Chase for the NEXTEL Cup Prediction

With the last 10 races, I wanted to look at some stats from the overall performance metrics of the drivers, not just this season, but their overall performance over the years.

The last 10 races constitute 6 intermediate tracks, 3 short tracks, and 1 super speedway.(NASCAR stats say Dover, Martinsville and Phoenix fall in the short track category.)
I primarily used the stats page on NASCAR.com., and then I looked at each driver (HERE) and chose the In-Depth stats and looked at track type. It was a quick and dirty look over.

For Intermediate tracks:
Driver (Average Finish)
Jimmie Johnson (10.5),
Denny Hamlin (11.3),
Carl Edwards (11.9),
Jeff Gordon (12),
Tony Stewart (12).

For Short Tracks:
Kyle Busch (11.4),
Jeff Gordon (11.6),
Denny Hamlin (12.8),
Tony Stewart (13.5),
Jimmie Johnson (13.7).

For Super Speedway Tracks:
Jeff Gordon (14),
Tony Stewart (14.5),
Kevin Harvick (15.8),
Kurt Busch (16.1),
Jimmie Johnson (16.9).

I standardized the numbers by giving more weight to the Intermediate tracks, less weight to the Short tracks, and very little weight to the Super Speedway, I get the following statistical prediction:
DRIVER (Average Ranking from above Table)
Jimmie Johnson (2.6),
Jeff Gordon (3.1),
Denny Hamlin (3.3),
Tony Stewart (4.4),
Carl Edwards (6.1),
Matt Kenseth (6.3),
Kevin Harvick (6.9),
Jeff Burton (7.6),
Kyle Busch (8.6),
Kurt Busch (8.8),
Clint Bowyer (9.8),
Martin Truex Jr. (10.5).

So there you have it. A statistical prediction from the drivers overall past performance.

There are other trends and environmental factors I didn't tinker with. (I'm usually dead on with my fantasy leagues, but engine woes, accidents, tires miff my performance results.)

So the stats above DO NOT take into affect anyone's hot streak, (IE: Jeff Gordon is performing better the Jimmie Johnson this year), the COT affect on teams, or the specific tracks they are going to be competing at, so there is lots of room for error, not to mention engine issues. (Remember they may still be adjusting to unleaded fuel.)

Well, now we wait and see how it all pans out.